Storm Prediction Center is talking about a possible severe tornado outbreak tomorrow. Story in the Lawrence Journal-World has the National Weather Service meteorologists comparing it to the June 8, 1974 outbreak where 22 people were killed. Tomorrow should be a fun day, weather wise! Note the bold portions of weather statement below.
Cliffs: End of the world is coming tomorrow
http://www2.ljworld.com/news/2008/ju...reak_thursday/
Cliffs: End of the world is coming tomorrow
SPC AC 041738
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1238 PM CDT WED JUN 04 2008
VALID 051200Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SERN SD...SRN MN...ERN NEB....NRN AND WRN IA...CENTRAL AND ERN KS...AND N CENTRAL OK...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE PLAINS/MID MO VALLEY REGION...
...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE UPPER TROUGH/LOW CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES AT THE START OF THE PERIOD IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY EWD INTO THE PLAINS...WHILE TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT LATE. THIS TROUGH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A VERY STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD...INCLUDING A SSWLY MID-LEVEL JET IN EXCESS OF 80 KT FORECAST TO ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AT THE SURFACE...A ROUGHLY 990 MB LOW INITIALLY EXPECTED OVER WRN KS WILL MOVE SLOWLY NNEWD WITH TIME...LIKELY REACHING A POSITION INVOF ERN SD BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. AS THE LOW MOVES NWD...WARM FRONT EXTENDING E OF THE LOW WILL ALSO MAKE SLOW NWD PROGRESS...CROSSING ERN NEB/IA/SRN WI/LOWER MI THROUGH THE DAY...AND THEN ACROSS MUCH OF MN/WI/UPPER MI DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE...A TRAILING COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD/SEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS
THROUGH THE DAY...AND SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE LOW SWD ACROSS ERN NEB/WRN IA...ERN KS/WRN OK...AND INTO WRN TX BY 06/12Z.
...PORTIONS OF N TX NWD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND NEWD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES...
A MAJOR SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MID MO VALLEY REGION FOR DAY 2 /THURSDAY JUNE 5/. HIGH CONFIDENCE EXISTS THAT WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER WILL OCCUR FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THOUGH SOME QUESTIONS WITH RESPECT TO STORM MODE -- AND THEREFORE MOST LIKELY SEVERE WEATHER TYPE -- REMAIN.
OVERALL...EXPECT STORMS ONGOING WITHIN ZONE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT N OF THE WARM FRONT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD -- ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY -- TO SHIFT NEWD WITH TIME. SEVERE THREAT -- PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF HAIL -- MAY ACCOMPANY STRONGER STORMS WITHIN THIS REGION.
MEANWHILE...A VERY MOIST BUT CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER IS FORECAST DURING THE DAY...WHILE DAYTIME HEATING IN CONJUNCTION WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT RESULTS IN MODERATE DESTABILIZATION. AS HEIGHTS FALL ALOFT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND THE COLD FRONT MOVES EWD ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS...CAP SHOULD WEAKEN SLOWLY...ALLOWING INITIAL STORM DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON -- LIKELY ACROSS NEB/KS. STORMS WILL LIKELY EXPAND SWD ALONG THE FRONT WITH TIME...AND ALSO EWD ACROSS IA/SRN MN/WI INVOF RETREATING WARM FRONT.
ALONG WITH FAVORABLY-UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT...VERY STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD IS FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH THE DAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. STRONG SLY/SSELY FLOW AT LOW LEVELS WILL VEER AND INCREASE WITH HEIGHT TO NEAR 80 KT FROM THE SSW AT MID LEVELS...RESULTING IN SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG UPDRAFT
ORGANIZATION/ROTATION. STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PLAINS SHOULD RAPIDLY BECOME SUPERCELLULAR...ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED THREATS FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS...AND
POTENTIALLY-SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES.
WHILE STORM MODE WILL LIKELY BE SUPERCELLULAR INITIALLY...MERIDIONAL NATURE OF THE FLOW FIELD ALOFT AND LINEAR FORCING ALONG THE FRONT OF AN OTHERWISE POTENTIALLY-CAPPED AIRMASS RAISES QUESTIONS WITH RESPECT TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE STORM MODE WITH TIME. AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL EXISTS THAT THE DOMINANT MODE BECOMES LINEAR THROUGH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT...THOUGH STILL WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS. WHILE THESE QUESTIONS REGARDING STORM MODE MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO DISCERN ATTM WHETHER THE EVENT WILL END UP BEING PRIMARILY A TORNADO OUTBREAK...A WIND EVENT WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED TORNADO EVENTS...OR SOME COMBINATION OF THE TWO...THE EVENT SHOULD NONETHELESS PROVE TO BE A SIGNIFICANT/DAMAGING EVENT ACROSS AN AREA CENTERED OVER KS/SRN AND ERN NEB/WRN IA.
..GOSS.. 06/04/2008
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1238 PM CDT WED JUN 04 2008
VALID 051200Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SERN SD...SRN MN...ERN NEB....NRN AND WRN IA...CENTRAL AND ERN KS...AND N CENTRAL OK...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE PLAINS/MID MO VALLEY REGION...
...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE UPPER TROUGH/LOW CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES AT THE START OF THE PERIOD IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY EWD INTO THE PLAINS...WHILE TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT LATE. THIS TROUGH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A VERY STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD...INCLUDING A SSWLY MID-LEVEL JET IN EXCESS OF 80 KT FORECAST TO ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AT THE SURFACE...A ROUGHLY 990 MB LOW INITIALLY EXPECTED OVER WRN KS WILL MOVE SLOWLY NNEWD WITH TIME...LIKELY REACHING A POSITION INVOF ERN SD BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. AS THE LOW MOVES NWD...WARM FRONT EXTENDING E OF THE LOW WILL ALSO MAKE SLOW NWD PROGRESS...CROSSING ERN NEB/IA/SRN WI/LOWER MI THROUGH THE DAY...AND THEN ACROSS MUCH OF MN/WI/UPPER MI DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE...A TRAILING COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD/SEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS
THROUGH THE DAY...AND SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE LOW SWD ACROSS ERN NEB/WRN IA...ERN KS/WRN OK...AND INTO WRN TX BY 06/12Z.
...PORTIONS OF N TX NWD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND NEWD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES...
A MAJOR SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MID MO VALLEY REGION FOR DAY 2 /THURSDAY JUNE 5/. HIGH CONFIDENCE EXISTS THAT WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER WILL OCCUR FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THOUGH SOME QUESTIONS WITH RESPECT TO STORM MODE -- AND THEREFORE MOST LIKELY SEVERE WEATHER TYPE -- REMAIN.
OVERALL...EXPECT STORMS ONGOING WITHIN ZONE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT N OF THE WARM FRONT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD -- ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY -- TO SHIFT NEWD WITH TIME. SEVERE THREAT -- PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF HAIL -- MAY ACCOMPANY STRONGER STORMS WITHIN THIS REGION.
MEANWHILE...A VERY MOIST BUT CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER IS FORECAST DURING THE DAY...WHILE DAYTIME HEATING IN CONJUNCTION WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT RESULTS IN MODERATE DESTABILIZATION. AS HEIGHTS FALL ALOFT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND THE COLD FRONT MOVES EWD ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS...CAP SHOULD WEAKEN SLOWLY...ALLOWING INITIAL STORM DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON -- LIKELY ACROSS NEB/KS. STORMS WILL LIKELY EXPAND SWD ALONG THE FRONT WITH TIME...AND ALSO EWD ACROSS IA/SRN MN/WI INVOF RETREATING WARM FRONT.
ALONG WITH FAVORABLY-UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT...VERY STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD IS FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH THE DAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. STRONG SLY/SSELY FLOW AT LOW LEVELS WILL VEER AND INCREASE WITH HEIGHT TO NEAR 80 KT FROM THE SSW AT MID LEVELS...RESULTING IN SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG UPDRAFT
ORGANIZATION/ROTATION. STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PLAINS SHOULD RAPIDLY BECOME SUPERCELLULAR...ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED THREATS FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS...AND
POTENTIALLY-SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES.
WHILE STORM MODE WILL LIKELY BE SUPERCELLULAR INITIALLY...MERIDIONAL NATURE OF THE FLOW FIELD ALOFT AND LINEAR FORCING ALONG THE FRONT OF AN OTHERWISE POTENTIALLY-CAPPED AIRMASS RAISES QUESTIONS WITH RESPECT TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE STORM MODE WITH TIME. AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL EXISTS THAT THE DOMINANT MODE BECOMES LINEAR THROUGH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT...THOUGH STILL WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS. WHILE THESE QUESTIONS REGARDING STORM MODE MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO DISCERN ATTM WHETHER THE EVENT WILL END UP BEING PRIMARILY A TORNADO OUTBREAK...A WIND EVENT WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED TORNADO EVENTS...OR SOME COMBINATION OF THE TWO...THE EVENT SHOULD NONETHELESS PROVE TO BE A SIGNIFICANT/DAMAGING EVENT ACROSS AN AREA CENTERED OVER KS/SRN AND ERN NEB/WRN IA.
..GOSS.. 06/04/2008
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